Consumers Cut Back, but Have They Changed Their Ways?

Thursday, January 29, 2009 7:07 - By The David

Some people think that that consumers are finally changing the way they spend money.  Last October, CNN reported that the savings rate increased to 3% after four consecutive years below 1%.  In December, CNN also reported that household debt dropped for the first time ever.

Lee Scott, CEO of Wal-Mart – one of the few retailers with strong sales – thinks that consumers may have changed for good.

I’m not necessarily convinced that just when all this liquidity and things hit, you’re going to have the same immediate desire to go back to consumption and debt.  There are a lot of young  people who have learned what it’s like when you are living on the edge and the bad times come.

So has a paradigm shift taken place?  I doubt it.

What we’re seeing is a lot like what happened to driving habbits after gas shot up to $4 a gallon.  For a short time, people drove significantly less.  The media covered the need for energy independence  and fuel efficient vehicles.  Then gas prices dropped again.  People drove more, and the media found other topics.

Why do I feel that financial responsibility is just a fad?  People are doing the same things they did before – they’re just trying to do them a little more cheaply.  Here are a few examples.

First, consumers are still buying big screen TVs.  They’re just buying them at different places.  The NY Times reported that while Best Buy had an unprecedented drop in big screen TV sales, Wal-Mart actually had an increase in the same area.

Second, people are still going out to bars to drink.  They’re just going during happy hour.  According to Kip Snyder, beverage director for the Yard House chain of restaurants:

We don’t see a change in what people are drinking as much as seeing a change in the time they are drinking.

People are still doing the same things.  Just at different times and places.  It’s a good way to save some money, but definitely not an indication that people have adopted financial responsibility as a way of life.

People will change their patterns as long as the economy is down.  But after it improves, most will just go back to their old ways.

If you’re unhappy with your financial situation, you need to remember that.  People who learn to fail from history are doomed to repeat their mistakes.  Your goal should be to make lasting changes.

Try writing down your financial goals, and revisit them regularly – even after the economy recovers.

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  • Chase Saunders
    A counterpoint, starting with a correction to DivorcedDatFrugalDad's comments. Sure fuel consumption has increased since prices came down. But there has clearly been demand destruction that outlasted the high prices. Consumption did not rise even close to what would be predicted by price alone. Demand has finally gone back to former levels, but only after several months of low demand, despite some of the lowest real prices in history! This shows that people really are looking ahead uneasily and changing behaviors.

    The other point I want to make is that by and large, when people do find a way to perform the same buying activities while spending less, they are finding real efficiencies and real money is being saved. You can't dismiss these changes because they are important. If a bar manages to draw a large crowd at happy hour for example, they are able to operate more efficiently - for example, they can keep a skeleton crew outside the rush hour.

    There are two categories of changes that will be needed to face upcoming challenges. The first, and best, kind of changes are those that allow us to maintain a semblance of our previous lifestyle at greater efficiencies. As I see it these are the most important changes as they are easier to make, have less of a downside, and preserve out standard of living. The other kind of changes may still be necessary, but we should do everything we can to streamline before we turn to those. Instead of looking gloomily at the fact that people are making win-win changes maybe you should get excited about it!
  • Very interesting points.

    I agree with you that if we can make changes that don't impact our lifestyle, those are the best kind to make because they're painless and more likely to be permanent.

    And I do agree that people are making changes if they are spending less, but that doesn't indicate a change in lifestyle or a permanent change.

    As a lifestyle example, what if people are still spending wrecklessly on credit cards, but they're spending less now? That wouldn't indicate a sustainable lifestyle change.

    And I'll grant that many people will find a way to become more efficient and make the changes stick, but the majority will just go back to their ways when everything is said and done.

    Thanks for the thoughtful comment!
  • Chase Saunders
    Fair enough, and thanks.
  • SDman
    I agree with DDFD, some people might change permanently, but I feel like most of the people will slip back into old habits when things start to level our and we're more free with our money again. Nice post.
  • Thanks.

    I'm determined to be one of the people who changes for good.
  • I am with you David-- these changes won't last.

    People have short memories-- case in point: gas consumption rose again with declining prices . . .

    There is an old saying, "The more things change, the more they stay the same . . . "

    Great post!
  • Thanks!

    I know what you mean... I just don't have faith that millions of people have the discipline and patience required to make the changes last.

    I wish it was a permanent change, as I think it would be better for the economy (and everyone), but unfortunately that's just not the case.
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