That's an interesting thought that we could be inspired by an upturn.

I know technology will definitely have an effecton our generation…take for example how many people use ING or HSBC to shop around for the best interest rates on saving accounts.

I hope you're right. We have better tools and support financially than any previous generation…hopefully we've got the mindset to take advantage of them.

You start by saying that if you choose the wrong time period, you're screwed, then you proceed to give advice on how to choose the right time period?

I don't really believe that there's a mathematical way to avoid bear markets without missing out on some of the recovery. You're going to miss out on at least some of that initial jump back up, which could seriously hurt returns.

It also seems like looking for patterns ignores the actual fundamentals of the stock itself. Why should people invest in something that they don't understand?

My counter to you…is that 99% of people would be better off using a buy-and-hold approach to INDEX funds, where expenses would be less than .5%, possibly as low as .02% or .03%.

If you utilize buy-and-hold as well as dollar cost averaging, it is not a question of timing. You're suggesting an approach where everything depends on timing.

Also, does that 14% include the higher fees (and possibly taxes) you'd be paying by buying and selling more frequently? How much has your portfolio returned since the fall of 2007? If the stock charting works as well as you say, you should not have lost a dime since then.

My tip, FWIW, use the simplest of charting techniques… (http://www.stockcharts.com) or your own software. Look at the S&P weekly and draw the 20 week and 50 week moving average. When the 20 goes down thru the 50 more than 1% (buffer to prevent wipsaws) SELL, and visa versa. This signal triggers only every few years and it will keep you out of much of the bear markets and get you in for much of the bull. See how this simple tool (over the last 90 years) would have boosted your return…I think its about 14% versus the 9% you had for all in all the time.

The matra to 'hold the course' is mutual fund propaganda since when you trade in and out it hurts THEIR BOTTOM LINE. They want you to keep dripping you $ into a fund they can suck 1-4% a year from.

I couldn't believe that even investors in the 40-64 age group were more aggressive than we are.

It seems like we're responding to the current economic downturn in a manner that only makes things worse. I know that a lot of older people responded to the great depression with a lifetime of thrift, which probably helped them financially.

It seems like young people are responding to today's problems with fear, which could guarentee a life of financial problems (especially when it comes time to retire)

And yet, we're avoiding stocks. Yikes!